sexta-feira, 1 de abril de 2011

Keynes tem as costas largas

Helena Garrido, sub-directora do Jornal de Negócios, afirmava ontem num vídeo do seu jornal: "O grande disparo do défice foi em 2009, quando houve adopção de medidas extraordinariamente expansionistas. Não nos podemos esquecer que, em 2009, foram adoptadas medidas como subsídios e apoios às empresas para combater a crise. Estávamos numa fase muito keynesiana de combate à crise". Hoje, Campos e Cunha, na sua crónica no Público, vai pelo mesmo diapasão: "Estamos a sofrer as consequências da dita política keynesiana de 2009 que teria permitido que a recessão fosse apenas de -2,6%".

Tenho muita pena, mas, mesmo já tendo passado um ano e qualquer coisa, ainda me lembro do que se passou em 2009. Lembro-me que o défice foi sobretudo causado por uma repentina retracção do produto, causado por quebras nas exportações e investimento. O défice disparou, não pela medidas extraordinárias de apoio à economia, mas sobretudo devido aos estabilizadores automáticos (nomeadamente quebra de receitas e aumento de despesas sociais). As medidas de estímulo económico tiveram um contributo muito modesto porque... eram muito modestas. Demasiado, aliás.

Nada como ver o relatório das contas do Estado para 2009, que nos diz: "O défice do subsector Estado em 2009 ascendeu a 14,1 mil milhões de euros, o que representa uma degradação de 8,9 mil milhões de euros relativamente a 2008, em resultado da quebra da receita efectiva em 6,1 mil milhões de euros e de um aumento da despesa em 2,8 mil milhões de euros."

Afinal, não foram tanto as despesas que dispararam. Foram sobretudo as receitas que afundaram. Ouvindo o que se diz na TV, parece mentira. Mas vamos às medidas "keynesianas". Segundo o mesmo relatório, foram gastos 824 milhões de euros nestas expansionistas medidas. Não chegam a 0,5% do PIB, num défice que aumentou 6,5% do PIB (números anteriores à revisão desta semana).

70 comentários:

Anónimo disse...

1. Aurélio Fajardinho Diz:

Abril 1, 2011 at 1:19 pm
Islândia. O povo é quem mais ordena. E já tirou o país da recessão
A crise levou os islandeses a mudar de governo e a chumbar o resgate dos bancos. Mas o exemplo de democracia não tem tido cobertura
Os protestos populares, quando surgem, são para ser levados até ao fim. Quem o mostra são os islandeses, cuja acção popular sem precedentes levou à queda do governo conservador, à pressão por alterações à Constituição (já encaminhadas) e à ida às urnas em massa para chumbar o resgate dos bancos.
Desde a eclosão da crise, em 2008, os países europeus tentam desesperadamente encontrar soluções económicas para sair da recessão. A nacionalização de bancos privados que abriram bancarrota assim que os grandes bancos privados de investimento nos EUA (como o Lehman Brothers) entraram em colapso é um sonho que muitos europeus não se atrevem a ter. A Islândia não só o teve como o levou mais longe.
Assim que a banca entrou em incumprimento, o governo islandês decidiu nacionalizar os seus três bancos privados – Kaupthing, Landsbanki e Glitnir. Mas nem isto impediu que o país caísse na recessão. A Islândia foi à falência e o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) entrou em acção, injectando 2,1 mil milhões de dólares no país, com um acrescento de 2,5 mil milhões de dólares pelos países nórdicos. O povo revoltou-se e saiu à rua.
Lição democrática n.º 1: Pacificamente, os islandeses começaram a concentrar-se, todos os dias, em frente ao Althingi [Parlamento] exigindo a renúncia do governo conservador de Geir H. Haarde em bloco. E conseguiram. Foram convocadas eleições antecipadas e, em Abril de 2009, foi eleita uma coligação formada pela Aliança Social-Democrata e o Movimento Esquerda Verde – chefiada por Johanna Sigurdardottir, actual primeira-ministra.

(...)

Anónimo disse...

Durante esse ano, a economia manteve-se em situação precária, fechando o ano com uma queda de 7%. Porém, no terceiro trimestre de 2010 o país saiu da recessão – com o PIB real a registar, entre Julho e Setembro, um crescimento de 1,2%, comparado com o trimestre anterior. Mas os problemas continuaram.


Lição democrática n.º 2: Os clientes dos bancos privados islandeses eram sobretudo estrangeiros – na sua maioria dos EUA e do Reino Unido – e o Landsbanki o que acumulava a maior dívida dos três. Com o colapso do Landsbanki, os governos britânico e holandês entraram em acção, indemnizando os seus cidadãos com 5 mil milhões de dólares [cerca de 3,5 mil milhões de euros] e planeando a cobrança desses valores à Islândia.
Algum do dinheiro para pagar essa dívida virá directamente do Landsbanki, que está neste momento a vender os seus bens. Porém, o relatório de uma empresa de consultoria privada mostra que isso apenas cobrirá entre 200 mil e 2 mil milhões de dólares. O resto teria de ser pago pela Islândia, agora detentora do banco. Só que, mais uma vez, o povo saiu à rua. Os governos da Islândia, da Holanda e do Reino Unido tinham acordado que seria o governo a desembolsar o valor total das indemnizações – que corresponde a 6 mil dólares por cada um dos 320 mil habitantes do país, a ser pago mensalmente por cada família a 15 anos, com juros de 5,5%. A 16 de Fevereiro, o Parlamento aprovou a lei e fez renascer a revolta popular. Depois de vários dias em protesto na capital, Reiquiavique, o presidente islandês, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, recusou aprovar a lei e marcou novo referendo para 9 de Abril.

Lição democrática n.º 3:

As últimas sondagens mostram que as intenções de votar contra a lei aumentam de dia para dia, com entre 52% e 63% da população a declarar que vai rejeitar a lei n.o 13/2011. Enquanto o país se prepara para mais um exercício de verdadeira democracia, os responsáveis pelas dívidas que entalaram a Islândia começam a ser responsabilizados – muito à conta da pressão popular sobre o novo governo de coligação, que parece o único do mundo disposto a investigar estes crimes sem rosto (até agora).
Na semana passada, a Interpol abriu uma caça a Sigurdur Einarsson, ex-presidente-executivo do Kaupthing. Einarsson é suspeito de fraude e de falsificação de documentos e, segundo a imprensa islandesa, terá dito ao procurador-geral do país que está disposto a regressar à Islândia para ajudar nas investigações se lhe for prometido que não é preso.
Para as mudanças constitucionais, outra vitória popular: a coligação aceitou criar uma assembleia de 25 islandeses sem filiação partidária, eleitos entre 500 advogados, estudantes, jornalistas, agricultores, representantes sindicais, etc. A nova Constituição será inspirada na da Dinamarca e, entre outras coisas, incluirá um novo projecto de lei, o Initiative Media – que visa tornar o país porto seguro para jornalistas de investigação e de fontes e criar, entre outras coisas, provedores de internet. É a lição número 4 ao mundo, de uma lista que não parece dar tréguas:


é que toda a revolução islandesa está a passar despercebida nos media internacionais.


http://www.ionline.pt/conteudo/113267-islandia-o-povo-e-quem-mais-ordena-e-ja-tirou-o-pais-da-recessao

Anónimo disse...

Dez notas sobre o Problema Português

Publicado por Andre Barata a 13:03 em Política Nacional

http://www.sedes.pt/blog/?p=3327

Entre os países representados no gráfico temos o mais baixo nível de confiança interpessoal e o terceiro maior nível de desigualdade de rendimento.
Assim, o nosso regime não é sustentável.
A baixa confiança interpessoal pressiona o regime a evoluir na direcção de uma cultura política autoritária e subordinada. Trocaremos a confiança pela lealdade, e a vontade de um projecto colectivo para o país por uma vontade de líderes que nos guiem ou nos dêem a segurança que vai faltando. Desfeita a confiança comum já nada suporta o interesse comum. A república evoluirá em uma de duas: ou em demagogia ou em plutocracia.
não basta que pensemos em garantir a confiança dos investidores, não basta garantir o melhor funcionamento da justiça, protestar contra a instabilidade do quadro fiscal e contra a gestão perdulária dos recursos públicos. Tudo isto é muito importante, mas só será decisivo sob um empenhado e bem sucedido esforço de redução da desigualdade de rendimento.

O problema económico português só é um problema de produtividade à luz do problema da desigualdade de rendimento.
É um equívoco inaceitável afirmar-se que os portugueses não produzem para o que consomem
sem, junto, se afirmar que os portugueses são um conjunto de pessoas que partilham a mesma nacionalidade e o direito a se intitularem “portugueses” mas que não partilham os seus rendimentos de forma equilibrada.
(…)

Cláudio Carvalho disse...

Já para não falar da subida de impostos. Não vejo keynesianismo nisso, mas quem anda à volta da politiquice portuguesa dá-lhe jeito falar de uns quantos jargões para justificar a remuneração pelo servicinho

João Carlos Graça disse...

Caro Nuno
Permita-me um comentário mais de "economia política" do que de economics.
Já por alturas da queda do António Guterres houve, se bem me lembro, um agravar momentâneo da situação orçamental, o qual ficou de facto a dever-se menos a aumento das despesas do que a redução das receitas fiscais...
E já nessa altura ficou esboçada esta, digamos, "cassete neoliberal" que depois abriu de facto o caminho aos governos "decisionistas" - é preciso "tomar medidas", "fazer as reformas necessárias", etc. - de Durão e (com o interlúdio blasé de Santana) Sócrates.
Donde se conclui: uma inteira década "corajosa" agrava de facto tanto as coisas que, no final dela, acabamos a ouvir... que temos de ser mais "corajosos" ainda (encore un effort, mes enfants, etc.).
Reconheço que fui um bom bocado mais lá atrás do que era o assunto do seu post, mas, já agora, aqui lhe deixo como achega.
Saudações cordiais.

Para a Posteridade e mais Além disse...

ante tamanhas mudanças

deste cabo muy estreitas

levam-me a desconfianças

leixam-me grãs suspeitas

e levam-me as esp'ranças


pois 300 mil islandeses

fazem regime a rodos

e dez contos de portugueses

dão bodos atrás de bodos

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